Capability Trajectory & Economic Impact: Sources

Economic Projections

The Economic Potential of Generative AI
- URL: https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-economic-potential-of-generative-ai-the-next-productivity-frontier
- Key Data: $2.6-4.4 trillion annual value potential
Generative AI and the Future of Work
- Type: Report series
- Key Data: 60-70% work activity automation potential

Sizing the Prize: What’s the Real Value of AI?
- Key Data: $15.7 trillion contribution to global GDP by 2030
Global AI Study: Exploiting the AI Revolution
- Key Data: Productivity and consumption breakdown

AI Adoption and Inequality
- URL: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/04/04/ai-adoption-and-inequality-565729
- Published: April 4, 2025
- Key Data: 40% global employment exposure
The Global Impact of AI – Mind the Gap
- URL: https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2025/076/article-A001-en.xml
- Type: IMF Working Papers Volume 2025 Issue 076
- Key Data: Advanced vs emerging economy impacts

GDPval: Measuring AI on Real-World Tasks
- URL: https://openai.com/index/gdpval/
- Published: September 2025
- Key Data: Performance trajectory across model generations
GPT-5 Release Notes
- Type: Technical documentation
- Key Data: Capability improvements

Claude Opus 4.5 Announcement
- URL: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-opus-4-5
- Published: November 2025
- Key Data: 80.9% SWE-bench, first to exceed best human
Claude 4.1 Release
- URL: https://www.infoq.com/news/2025/08/anthropic-claude-opus-4-1/
- Published: August 2025
- Key Data: 74.5% SWE-bench

Gemini 2.5 Technical Report
- URL: https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/gemini/gemini_v2_5_report.pdf
- Published: March 2025
- Key Data: GPQA, AIME benchmarks
Gemini 3 Announcement
- URL: https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-3/
- Published: November 2025
- Key Data: 93.8% GPQA, 50% developer improvement
TechCrunch: Gemini 3 Benchmark Scores
- URL: https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/18/google-launches-gemini-3-with-new-coding-app-and-record-benchmark-scores/
- Published: November 18, 2025

Axios: ChatGPT GDPval Study
- URL: https://www.axios.com/2025/09/25/chatgpt-gdp-val-ai-study
- Published: September 25, 2025
- Key Insight: AI catching up to human work
Fortune: AI Models at Expert Level
- URL: https://fortune.com/2025/09/30/ai-models-are-already-as-good-as-experts-at-half-of-tasks-a-new-openai-benchmark-gdpval-suggests/
- Published: September 30, 2025
VentureBeat: Claude Performance Analysis
- URL: https://venturebeat.com/ai/anthropics-claude-opus-4-5-is-here-cheaper-ai-infinite-chats-and-coding
- Published: November 2025

Statista: Generative AI Market Size
- Type: Market research
- Key Data: $244B (2025) → $827B (2030)
Grand View Research: AI Market Analysis
- Type: Industry report
- Key Data: Growth rates and sector breakdowns

GDPval arXiv Paper
- URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.04374
- Type: Academic publication
- Key Data: Methodology and trajectory analysis
SWE-bench Publication
- Type: Academic benchmark
- Key Data: Software engineering task methodology

UN Report: AI Race and Global Inequality
- URL: https://www.euronews.com/next/2025/12/02/ai-race-is-faster-than-countries-can-adapt-threatening-greater-global-inequality-un-report
- Published: December 2, 2025
- Source: UN Development Programme
OECD-Cisco: AI Uptake Divides
- URL: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/oecd-cisco-research-finds-stark-geographical-and-generational-divides-in-ai-uptake-and-digital-well-being-302632418.html
- Key Data: Geographic and generational patterns